Unpopularly elected

George Bush is no stranger to the vagaries of the ballot box. Neither is he a novice to fixing the problem when the vote fails to go his way.

Having "brought" democracy to Iraq and Palestine (er, or whatever it is that passes for that stateless concept), GeeDubya is displeased at the choices they've made for duly elected leaders, and will either get the one he wants or will pack up his toys and go home.

Bush tells Iraqi P.M. to step down

The Bush administration has told Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari he is unacceptable as head of the next government, the New York Times reports.

Redha Jowad Taki, a member of parliament, told the Times that U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad passed on "a personal message from President Bush" at a meeting last Saturday. Taki, who was at the meeting, said Khalilzad told Shiite leader Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim that Bush "doesn't want, doesn't support, doesn't accept" Jaafari.

Jaafari and other Shiite leaders are not taking the message well.

"How can they do this?" asked Haider al-Ubady, a spokesman for the prime minister. "An ambassador telling a sovereign country what to do is unacceptable."

Bush's Call for Ouster of Iraq's Prime Minister Widens Rift with Shias

Friction between the Americans and the Shia, who make up 60 per cent of Iraq's 27 million population, escalated sharply after at least 16 Shi'ites were killed in the al-Mustafa mosque by Iraqi and American Special Forces on Sunday night. Many Shia believe that the US was shocked by, and is not ready to accept, the success of the Shia Alliance in the election on December 15.

The prolonged negotiations on forming a new national unity government has served to underline the fissures dividing Shia, Sunni and Kurds. The Alliance has called for security to be handed over to the Iraqi government in the wake of the al-Mustafa incident.

The government led by Mr Jaafari for over a year is a Shi'ite-Kurdish coalition, but the Kurds accuse Mr Jaafari of failing to honour agreements on the return of Kurds to Kirkuk and other places from which they were expelled by Saddam Hussein.

Dr Mahmoud Othman, one of the Kurdish negotiators engaged in trying to form the new government, told me yesterday: "Jaafari has been in power one year and he has failed. He's not fit for the job and we should try somebody else." He criticized Mr Jaafari for acting as if he only represented one party and not the whole country. Since he became prime minister last year the Ministry of the Interior has been accused of running anti-Sunni death squads.

Unless he chooses to step down Mr Jaafari may not be finished since he is still the chosen Shia candidate and other Shia leaders may not want to break ranks. The unity of the Shia Alliance is also supported by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the Hawza (the religious hierarchy) as well as by the Iranians.

The prolonged and rancorous negotiations on the make up of the new Iraqi government gives a false impression that it will be a powerful body. In reality central government authority is now very limited in much of Baghdad, Basra and Mosul, the three largest cities in the country.

There is almost a complete breakdown in law and order. Iraqi society is dissolving because of the breakdown of law and order. Sami Mudhafar, Higher Education and Scientific Research Minister, said recently that he wanted to lay to rest exaggerated accounts of the number of university professors murdered in the last three years. He said the true figure was only 89 professors killed over three years, Mr Mudhafar's other piece of comforting news was that there was no murder campaign directed against the Iraqi intelligentsia and they were simply being killed because they lived in Iraq. In addition to the professors 311 teachers have been killed in the last four months. He added that the government was too weak to defend anybody: "I myself was target of an assassination attempt recently and the government has failed to obtain any lead on the party behind it."

Countries say new government must meet international demands

On the day Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his 24-member Cabinet were sworn in to take the Palestinian helm, the United States and Canada on Wednesday formally cut ties with the government.

U.S. diplomats and contractors were already expressly forbidden from contact with Hamas, U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters, adding that the new order was necessary to avoid any confusion, because the U.S. still has contact with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

"We are now in a period of transition and change from a Palestinian Authority that was committed to seeking a two-state solution, seeking peace with Israel via negotiation, to a Hamas-led government which does not," McCormack said.

The militant organization came to power via a landslide victory in January's Palestinian elections. Though the organization runs a network of social and charitable organizations for Palestinians, it refuses to renounce violence or recognize Israel's right to exist.

The U.S., Israel and European Union consider Hamas a terrorist group and say it must reverse its stances on violence and Israel. The United States and Canada say Hamas must also abide by past Palestinian agreements to seek a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has delivered an ultimatum, which he reiterated at a victory rally for his Kadima party after Israeli elections Tuesday, stating that Israel's borders will be defined in the next four years, with or without Palestinian input. Olmert's current plan is to evacuate small Jewish settlements in the West Bank and annex the larger ones.

Though there have been few signs that the Hamas-led government is ready for fruitful talks with Israel, Haniyeh said Wednesday that Palestinians were not averse to all negotiations with their neighbors.

After being sworn in as Palestinian prime minister, Haniyeh gave Abbas his blessing to negotiate with Israel, according to the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz. "If the PA chairman, as the elected president, wants to jumpstart talks, we have no objection to it," the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz quoted Haniyeh as saying. "If whatever (Abbas) presents to the people as a result of the negotiations serves our interests, then we will also redefine our position."

The existing U.S. "no contact" order forbade diplomats from dealing with groups deemed to be terrorist organizations. It also required all contractors receiving U.S. funding to sign pledges promising they would have no contact with such groups. Audits are conducted to make sure they keep their word.

The State Department issued a travel warning February 27, banning all U.S. government employees from traveling in the West Bank or Gaza except on "mission-critical business." The warning said American employees of the embassy in Tel Aviv, Israel, and the consulate in Jerusalem, were not allowed to use public transportation or patronize discos or nightclubs.

Wednesday's beefed-up order does not prohibit contact with Abbas or non-Hamas members of the Palestinian Parliament.

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Peter McKay on Wednesday said his country was cutting ties with the Palestinian government because it hasn't "addressed the concerns raised by Canada and others concerning nonviolence, the recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the road map for peace."

However, International Cooperation Minister Josee Verner added that Canada remains committed to a two-state solution and will continue to provide some assistance to Palestinians. "Working with our partners and through the United Nations, its agencies and other organizations, Canada will continue to support and respond to the humanitarian needs of the Palestinian people," Verner said.

The United States, too, is reviewing its aid programs to the Palestinians, and McCormack emphasized Wednesday that Hamas will not receive any U.S. funding. "We're looking at ways that we can increase humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people," McCormack said. "On the other hand, we've said it before, and I'll reiterate it, that we are not going to provide funds to a terrorist organization."

McCormack was asked Monday about Haniyeh stating he was ready for dialogue with the Quartet, made up of the U.S., the EU, Russia and the United Nations. "The onus is now on Hamas," McCormack responded. "But in terms of dialogue, Hamas needs to meet the conditions laid out by the international community."

Now, I know this reportage sounds like I have some issues with the action Bush is taking here, when actually I don't. My issues predate this. I see nothing wrong in withdrawing ambassadors, isolating leaders and doing all the things that diplomacy allows when dealing with hostile and obstreperous adversaries, even ones governed by democracies.

And I am totally agreed that trying to bring democratic ideals and institutions to states traditionally ruled over by religious sects or self-appointed monarchs, dictators or parties which do not allow for free speech, popular vote and public accountability is a good idea.

My only whinge (and it is not shrill) about these particular instances is that Bush should have seen these difficulties coming and should have done a better job, particularly in Iraq where the occupation determined the basic structure of these matters, of laying solid foundations, including taking the time and making a bona fide effort to allow the democratic institutions, in their infancy, to mature, rather than rushing it along with mere forms of democracy without the substance.

When Guambats rule the world, I'm sure it will be a much more harmonious place.