Friday, February 15, 2008

If Bill was the first black president, will Hillary be the first chicana?

With Obama siphoning away from the Clinton Clan the black vote, Hillary is changing her colours:

Clintons Have Deep Roots With Hispanics
Clinton told ABC News' Kate Snow that she has deep roots in the Hispanic community.

"This is something that is not easily developed," she said. "You have to work on it. It is part of who I am, part how I live, part of the reason I have so many people working for me across Texas."

Clinton seeks to lure Valley's Hispanic voters
[L]abor contractor Sara Lopez was already wrapping reception tables in red, white and blue paper.

"We believe in her, this is Clinton country," said Lopez, who spent the last five years shuttling migrant workers to onion fields in New Mexico. "The Latino vote will make the difference for once in the history of the United States."

Support for Obama is spotty in the Valley, a region with very few black residents.

Hispanic vote crucial in Texas' Democratic primary
Former President Bill Clinton is so popular in South Texas that his photograph hangs in many Mexican restaurants, an honor often reserved for favorite local politicians or a portrait of Our Lady of Guadalupe, Mexico's patron saint.

Hillary Clinton boasts of her own ties to Texas Democrats, dating back to her work for the ill-fated George McGovern presidential campaign in 1972.

Clinton has support from U.S. Reps. Silvestre Reyes, Henry Cuellar, Ruben Hinojosa and Solomon Ortiz and former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros — a former Clinton Cabinet member — and prominent Houston politician Carol Alvarado.

Latinos comprise 36 percent of Texas' population. By far, most are Mexican-American, some whose families have been in the country for hundreds of years. Twelve percent of the state's population is black.

Hola, Hillary
Hillary Rodham Clinton addressed an overflow crowd at the Richard M. Borchard Regional Fairgrounds with a populist speech that emphasized jobs and the economy, as well as her longstanding familiarity with South Texas.

"I know where South Texas is. I have been to South Texas," she said. "You will have a president who will work with you to improve the lives of the people of South Texas."

NY Hispanics Question Clinton Aide Exit
Two New York Hispanic leaders said they would be upset if Hillary Rodham Clinton's Hispanic campaign manager was replaced because of primary losses they believe should be blamed on former President Clinton and others.

Patti Solis Doyle, whose parents were Mexican immigrants, stepped down as Clinton's campaign manager this weekend as Clinton was losing five Democratic contests to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Clinton has said Doyle's decision was a personal response to a grueling campaign, not about job performance. She added that Solis Doyle would remain a senior adviser

Solis Doyle responded: "This my decision, my choice, my timing."

"I was really, really proud to be the first Hispanic woman to run a presidential campaign and particularly proud of the way Hispanics turned out and they turned out for Hillary," Solis Doyle added, "There was no pressure and while I'm sad not to have the role, I am so happy to be able to be home more with my kids."

Clinton may win Texas and lose it
for reasons that actually make sense if you dig deep enough, in Texas the Hispanic votes don't count as much as the black votes Obama can count on receiving in overwhelming numbers.

So, it's possible Hillary could whip Barack by eight to 10 points and yet split about even on Texas delegates.

Texas Democrats could even give Clinton more votes but give Obama more delegates.

In what can only be considered a historical irony, the state's two heavily African-American districts get at least 50 percent more delegates than the average senatorial district.

These are people who were counted as three-fifths of a person in the nation's original representational scheme.

The Houston senatorial district represented by state Sen. Rodney Ellis will send seven delegates to Denver.

By contrast, the district represented by Houston Sen. Mario Gallegos will send three. The same is true for Brownsville Sen. Eddie Lucio.

When it comes time to draw the lines at least once a decade, the last thing the party in control wants is districts that are evenly divided. So they try to pack as many members of the opposing party into as few districts as possible.

Should a senatorial district that is three-quarters Democrat get the same number of delegates as a district that is only one-quarter Democrat? Party rules quite reasonably say no. That would make each primary vote in the heavily Democratic district worth only a third as much as a vote in a heavily Republican district.

So, the number of delegates awarded to each district is determined by the number of votes cast in that district for governor in 2006 and president in 2004.

Simply put, Hispanics, who historically vote in smaller percentages than African-Americans, did not turn out for either John Kerry in 2004 or Chris Bell in 2006.

Clinton has been doing well among Hispanics, having received about 65 percent of the Hispanic vote in several important states on Super Tuesday.

But Obama has been doing even better among black voters. He not only has won 80 percent and more of their vote but also has significantly increased their turnout.

The result is that Obama is likely to carry the two districts represented by black senators (Ellis and Royce West of Dallas) by larger margins than Clinton will carry Hispanic senatorial districts.

it is not hard to imagine Clinton winning the popular vote in a tough Texas election, but actually losing ground in the delegate count.

After a close vote and recount, Clinton managed to squeek past Obama to win the New Mexico vote.

The candidates must play to their constituencies; that's what it's all about. But they will both have to play it very carefully and diplomatically to keep this primary race from turning into primarily a race race. Especially if the Democrats, as a united party, hope to replace the Republican party at the helm.

McCain-Obama Race Could Redraw Electoral Map
Mr. McCain might enter a race versus Mr. Obama with an advantage among Hispanic voters. During the primaries so far, Mr. McCain has done well with Hispanics, while Mr. Obama has not.
Guambat doesn't get to vote for President anyway, so has no dog in this fight. Any way you look at it, this election has all the makings for setting a record of some kind or other: oldest, woman or black. Guambat is just delighted that it won't be an evangelist. (It won't, will it??)

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