Dire straits of Taiwan

Little ole Guam just can't seem to shake its Taiwan ties. Austronesians, who are the ancestors of all the peoples in Oceania and much of Southeast Asia, seem to have derived from Taiwan, Formosa, or whatever they called it those many thousands of years ago.

The Austronesian language groups evolved throughout the Pacific Island north and south of the equator, but the ancient Chamorro people of Guam have one of the most "primitive", that is, direct and un-evolved, Austronesian languages associated with that earliest of Taiwan times. Or so the anthropologist types tell us.

These days, though, Guam is caught up in another Taiwan tussle, as Mainland China and Republic China, backed by the US, eye each other off from across the narrow Taiwan Straits, which is about half the driving distance from New York to Washington, DC.

Some of those folk what play war games have come to the conclusion that, should China decide to take Taiwan by force, they would succeed, primarily on that internet strategy "denial of service", though in this game they're calling it "anti-access".

And Guam is one of the access points China can be expected to "anti" up.

Asia&pacific : RAND Study Suggests U.S. Loses War With China

A new RAND study suggests U.S. air power in the Pacific would be inadequate to thwart a Chinese attack on Taiwan in 2020. The study, entitled "Air Combat Past, Present and Future," by John Stillion and Scott Perdue, says China's anti-access arms and strategy could deny the U.S. the "ability to operate efficiently from nearby bases or seas."

The report states that 34 missiles with submunition warheads could cover all parking ramps at Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa. An "attack like this could damage, destroy or strand 75 percent of aircraft based at Kadena," it says. To make matters worse, Kadena is the only U.S. air base within 500 nautical miles of the Taiwan Strait, whereas China has 27.

U.S. air bases in South Korea are more than 750 miles distant, and those in Japan are more than 885 miles away. Anderson Air Force Base, Guam, is 1,500 miles away. The result is that sortie rates will be low, with a "huge tanker demand."

Overall, the authors say, "China could enjoy a 3:1 edge in fighters if we can fly from Kadena - about 10:1 if forced to operate from Andersen. Overcoming these odds requires qualitative superiority of 9:1 or 100:1" - a differential that is "extremely difficult to achieve" against a like power.

The full report, titled, "Entering the Dragon's Lair: Chinese antiaccess strategies and their implication for the United States", can be found here. You might as well get drunk before you read it, because you'll be plenty plenty sober when you're finished.