Coming soon to a radar screen near you

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
"Something approaching panic seems to be taking hold across the country as the perception emerges that the bird flu outbreak is steadily getting out of control. As the number of people being treated for suspected bird flu infections rose to six on Tuesday, the government admitted to a lack of coordination and money in its efforts to tackle the virus.
Biosecurity measures intended to quarantine infected areas have proved to be ineffective as poultry producing areas here are widely dispersed, making it difficult for the government to fully apply the necessary steps, a minister said.
"We admit that the outbreak is difficult to contain as its source is still unclear," said Minister of Agriculture Anton Apriyantono after a meeting with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono." (http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailheadlines.asp?fileid=20050921.@01&irec=0)

Bangkok: "Thailand wants to increase its stockpile of vaccines against the deadly bird flu virus, but supplies are hard to get, Public Health Minister Suchai Charoenratanakul said yesterday. ``...if there's a pandemic, then yes, we would be short,'' Dr Suchai said. ``We want to order more but producers are finding it tough to meet global demand for the vaccines.'' Thailand and some Southeast Asian countries have been at the centre of the outbreak of the virus, which took the world by surprise. Countries such as the United Kingdom and the US have a stockpile capable of treating at least 17% of their population. But some countries in this region have not stockpiled even a single dose. US President George W. Bush last week announced an ``International Partnership on Avian and Pandemic Influenza'' which would see 15 countries -Zealand, Nigeria, Russia, Singapore, Vietnam, the United States and Thailand - join the fight through the establishment of a quick response team to tackle any viral outbreak." (http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/19Sep2005_news14.php)

"ROME, Sept. 18 - As World Health Organization officials repeat warnings about the potential for a deadly bird flu pandemic, wealthier countries are redoubling efforts to buy an experimental vaccine and antiviral drugs in the hopes of protecting their citizens from infection.
At the United Nations on Wednesday, President Bush proposed an "international partnership" to combat the disease, and the United States announced last week that it had placed orders for $100 million worth of a promising but technically unlicensed vaccine that is under development by the French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis.
But as countries spend tens of millions of dollars to prepare for bird flu, they are investing in uncertain and untested strategies, WHO officials acknowledge.
The basic problem is that the A(H5N1) virus has not changed in a way that would allow for widespread human infection. What is more, health officials said they would not know precisely how to combat the virus until after it mutated, when they would be able to study its composition and how deadly it was.
"We know we're overdue for an influenza pandemic strain, and we know it will occur, but we don't know when or even exactly what virus will cause it," said Dick Thompson, a WHO spokesman. "It is possible that the virus won't be H5N1 at all or that this virus will change in a way so that the vaccine under development doesn't work against it."
He said the health agency would not comment on whether it was rational for countries to spend so much on medicine orders. But, he added, "We think it is wise because it encourages the companies to do the research and development on this very difficult problem." (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/19/health/19flu.html)

"In assessing the potential economic impact of avian flu, a
number of assumptions need to be envisaged. First, it is imperative
to distinguish the scenario of the flu remaining an animal epidemic,
from that of the virus mutating to a human virus. The outcomes, as
will be shown, will be radically different.
If the epidemic remains confined to animals, as has been the
case up to now, it is likely that the aggregate impact on the
economies of the region will be relatively limited and hardly perceptible....
This scenario [spread of flu to humans] would probably lead to a major economic crisis, as the avian influenza virus appears to be highly contagious, much more so than the SARS virus. Since this is highly speculative, the Asian Development Bank did not simulate such a scenario. However, if a reference can be made, it is to the impact of the 2003 SARS epidemic. The Asian Development Bank estimated that the impact of the SARS epidemic lasting one quarter was of a magnitude of about $18 billion in terms of GDP (0.8 percent) or $59 billion in terms of business losses (measured as total final expenditures). It is clear that
if the avian influenza mutates to a human virus, these estimates would provide a floor for expected losses."
(http://www.adb.org/Documents/EDRC/Policy_Briefs/PB024.pdf)