Topsy maybe, but Turvy too?

Guambat is a bit gobsmacked at the unrelenting rise of the Oz bourse. Not the rise, itself, just the unrelenting straight line straight up, which comes on top of a steady and already steep three year ascent.

And in this environment, woe be to she who says "this far and no further". At best, all we can say is that there are certain characteristics that tend to cluster in association with market tops, usually prior to the tops, but without any causal relationship nor any useful predictive value as far as timing.

Some anecdotal events have been menioned here of late. Another anecdote comes from a toss away comment by the AFR's Chanticleer column in his comments today about the Citigroup/ASIC matter. He said,

"Citigroup Australia would note the US Fed doesn't seem to have taken much notice of what the Australian Securities and Investments Commission is doing in its action alleging conflict of interest and insider trading. But then ASIC isn't fussed about this because it is not trying to be the global revolutionary that some might think. It simply wants clarity around the rules. While Citigroup would have preferred to deal with that around a conference table instead of in court, the reality is that such conferences rarely bring much action. In conceptual terms, at the top of a bull market a warning from the regulator about conflicts and the need for disclosure is not unwelcome."

Another appeared in the Herald today, which just tends to underline how market participants may be taking leave of their senses. Greed driven tops tend to be accentuated when people are willing to pay anything just to be on the popular "must have". And the sheer hypocracy of the people feeding that frenzy is as incredible as the mad happy buyers. This anecdote is a bit stretched from the events surrounding the supercycle commodity theme, but fits with the greed theme. You'd not be excused if you thought it had anything to do with giving thanks for our simple daily bread.

Those darned terrorists made me buy $9 bread

THE day when we flock to shops to pay $9 for a premium loaf of bread is just around the corner as a stack of indulgence products and services emerge to satisfy our need to pamper ourselves.

So predicts one of Britain's leading retail strategists, Howard Saunders, who argues Australia's love affair with the good life and healthy living will fuel growth in premium-priced products such as coffees, chocolates, wines, patisseries, lingerie and fashion.

He said the trend of paying more for goods stemmed from an overriding sense of guilt and fear among consumers in Western cultures about their consumption habits, the environment and the ever present fear of terrorism.

In turn this was prompting more consumers to seek products that pampered to their need for "me" time. The trend has prompted a rise in Britain of specialist outlets selling premium coffee, cakes and chocolates. Supermarket chain Tesco cannot get enough supply of £3 ($7.30) loaves of bread.

"There seems to be no limit to what you can charge," Mr Saunders said this week.