Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Political spin and other conspiracies

Guambat previously related a study done by the Raymond James' Jeff Saut which points to some "eerie" trading done by some "mysterious buyers" which, in just 9 days spread over several months, accounts for practically all of the 1200 point rise in the DJIA. As it happened, on the day of Guambat's post the "mystery buyers" appeared to be at it again.

Well, Minyanville brings Jeff Saut back for another go with the same theme, including other observations made by the likes of John Mauldin and Barry Ritholtz.

For instance, he drops this quote from John Mauldin:
"As many have noted, only 10 of the 30 Dow stocks are above their January 2000 highs. Fifteen of the remaining 20 are down 25% or more. The biggest reason for the surging of the Dow has been just four of its stocks, which not coincidentally are its highest-priced components. And as Barry Ritholtz noted, not a one of the 30 Dow stocks was at an all-time high as the Dow was making its new index highs."
Then he seems to try to tie in the observed political cycle that apparently churns withing the market cycles.
So what does this mean to us? [Our] “call” over the last few months has been for higher equity prices into the late October fiscal year-end timeframe (many institutions end their fiscal year on October 31st) and potentially higher all the way into the November elections...."

While my firm has no idea who those mysterious buyers have been, the October 13th edition of The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Paulson Pulls for U.S. Markets,” which implies it just may be the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) a.k.a. the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets that was created in 1988 by President Reagan under Executive Order 12631.
Guambat will ruminate on that Trick whilst chewing through his bag of Halloween Treats.


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