Saturday, October 11, 2008

Mr. Market's Wild Ride


Frightful Friday lived up to expectations, giving the wildest and most frightening ride on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ever. No doubt more than a few people lost their lunch. Some, most likely, much more.

DJ TAKING STOCK: Putting Dow's Record 1000-Pt Swing In Context
By Tomi Kilgore A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

To put some historical perspective on how violent the swing was in the Dow Jones Industrials Average's record intraday moves Friday, what took eight months a decade ago took only 6 hours on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average hit a low of 7882.51 -- a 696.68-point loss -- a few minutes after the open. About six hours later, the Dow was up as much as 322.09 points, at a high of 8901.28.

About a half-hour after reaching its high, the Dow closed down 128 points at 8451.19.

The intraday range of 1018.77 points was the widest in history.

Just a year ago, the Dow hit its all-time high close of 14,164.53. In the last 12 months, the index lost 40.3 percent of its value.

And, to put this is a bigger context, and an Australian one, (see Barry Ritholtz for the US one) the market action has reached a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the mighty dot.commodity boom from 2003's low to 2007's all time high, as seen in this proxy action of the ASX/S&P200 Share Price Future Contract in the chart below.

The Average True Range is in territory often coincident with bottom reversals. Caveat Emptor.


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