Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Dot.Commodity Boom


I've blogged on previously about how the Aussie market is being carried along by a boom in resources underwritten by the China/India growth story. (http://guambatstew.blogspot.com/2005/08/got-shaft.html and
http://guambatstew.blogspot.com/2005/08/its-sure-thing.html) This chart picture is the proverbial 1000 words essay on that story. Since the 2003 lows at 2700 (about time the smart money became aware of the pending China boom), the ASX200 index has risen to 4500. That's a gain of 166.6%. In other words, in the last 2 1/2 years, the Aussie market has added two-thirds of the value it had grown over its prior entire history. It's going for the gold metal, and the silver and the bronze and the iron and the copper and the coal.... It is instructive to note that commodities make up about one quarter of the index. Almost three quarters of the rest of the market has been taken along for the ride. How many of the "investors" have been taken for a ride as well? Is this a bottomless pit? Will "the market" take profits on this almighty big bet? Or on the 3/4s non commodity part? If so, when?

And while we're on a resources theme, have a "peak" at the oil story: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html?pagewanted=all

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